RiskPattern.Distribution
Contents
[
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]RiskPattern.Distribution property
Gets or sets the probability distribution used in Monte Carlo simulation. The default value is ProbabilityDistributionType.Normal.
public ProbabilityDistributionType Distribution { get; set; }
Remarks
Can be one of the values defined in the ProbabilityDistributionType
enumeration.
Examples
Shows how to define risk simulation settings.
var settings = new RiskAnalysisSettings();
settings.IterationsCount = 200;
var project = new Project(DataDir + "Software Development Plan-1.mpp");
var task = project.RootTask.Children.GetById(17);
// Initialize a risk pattern
var pattern = new RiskPattern(task);
// Select a distribution type for the random number generator to generate possible values from (only two types currently supported, namely normal and uniform)
// For more details see here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution)
pattern.Distribution = ProbabilityDistributionType.Normal;
// Set the percentage of the most likely task duration which can happen in the best possible project scenario
// The default value is 75, which means that if the estimated specified task duration is 4 days then the optimistic duration will be 3 days
pattern.Optimistic = 70;
// Set the percentage of the most likely task duration which can happen in the worst possible project scenario
// The default value is 125, which means that if the estimated specified task duration is 4 days then the pessimistic duration will be 5 days.
pattern.Pessimistic = 130;
// Set a confidence level that correspond to the percentage of the time the actual values will be within optimistic and pessimistic estimates.
// You can think of it as a value of standard deviation: the more uncertain about your estimates you are, the more the value of standard deviation used in random number generator is
pattern.ConfidenceLevel = ConfidenceLevel.CL75;
settings.Patterns.Add(pattern);
var analyzer = new RiskAnalyzer(settings);
var analysisResult = analyzer.Analyze(project);
var earlyFinish = analysisResult.GetRiskItems(RiskItemType.EarlyFinish).Get(project.RootTask);
Console.WriteLine("Expected value: {0}", earlyFinish.ExpectedValue);
Console.WriteLine("StandardDeviation: {0}", earlyFinish.StandardDeviation);
Console.WriteLine("10% Percentile: {0}", earlyFinish.GetPercentile(10));
Console.WriteLine("50% Percentile: {0}", earlyFinish.GetPercentile(50));
Console.WriteLine("90% Percentile: {0}", earlyFinish.GetPercentile(90));
Console.WriteLine("Minimum: {0}", earlyFinish.Minimum);
Console.WriteLine("Maximum: {0}", earlyFinish.Maximum);
analysisResult.SaveReport(OutDir + "AnalysisReport_out.pdf");
See Also
- enum ProbabilityDistributionType
- class RiskPattern
- namespace Aspose.Tasks.RiskAnalysis
- assembly Aspose.Tasks